It will probably be a while before I get the new toy as I want to look for other cheaper options. I have even entertained the idea of just getting a laptop since I can have quote.com quotes for half of the satellite feed price. The only advantage of the handheld is I could watch during meetings or in the car if I was traveling.
I don't play golf that often anymore. We have a few interesting courses but I mainly stay close to home since I don't have much time anymore. The big hazards here are the "whistle pigs". They are like minature groundhogs and if you stray off the fairway, they are likely to run off with your ball or else you can lose the ball in a hole. I developed a nasty slice at the beginning of this year and had to battle the little boogers on a few occassions.
This market is interesting to say the least. I am seeing over bought and over sold indicators often in the same sectors. The indexes are near their channel support lines which in a "normal" market would indicate some consolidation and then a leg up. I still remember all the gloom and doom talk in October. I ended up saying what the heck and loaded up on KEA at 28-30 and sold in the 50s shortly there after. I agree that my gut feels this is different this time but I have always said, follow your charts and my charts still are not telling me the bull is dead yet. I want to look at a few more indicators today but I think Don may be on to the timing of this. The one thing I keep telling myself that is different from October is that there is nothing to move us up from here. Back then we had X-mas rally, spring tech rally etc. Earnings were unknown but still showing some good numbers. Now we know earnings are horrible. The analysts keep lowering their targets and yet prices are still going up. This is stupid. If INTC was only worth 68 when they had real earnings and growth, why are they worth 89 now when their earnings are lower and all the PC makers are falling apart except for DELL. GTW at 62 is insane. I knew MU was a ploy for the funds to get out but everyone said I was nuts for wanting to load up on puts or short. How many times do I have to say I am going to listen to myself next time before I do it. Just missed more easy money there.
Basically, I think we could still get one last gasp up but it will be weak at best and then we are going to drift lower until the big money has finished dumping which I have been seeing them do for the last few weeks if not months. Once they are done, we could have a drop of epic proportion. I dont chart the DOW because I don't trade it but I can justify easily NASDAQ and OEX numbers that would make you turn pale. Everyone keeps drawing trendlines from this years action or from last fall. If you back up the starting points for those lines, the numbers get allot more scary and long term trends are better than short term. The only reason I can't make up my mind is because my weekly charts and my daily charts are not in sync right now. Since we are so close to some supports, we could stay in this area and then start a slower climb up around earnings time in late Sept early October. A dip in the OEX to 500 would not be fatal at this point and could still give us a shot at a nice bounce later. This would fit my FA side better than a free for all drop into a multimonth bear market scenario. I could see a earnings warning drop in the market, a consolidation period of a few weeks then a recovery going into earnings that would allow the charts to "stairstep" as Donald has pointed out. This would also allow for more time to evaluate Asia at the "one year point", the Fed to make up their minds on interest rates and then the BK occuring at the normal time frame for BKs, in the fall.
I am probably just rambling and as I stated I need to look at a few other indicators before I can make up my mind one way or the other. I plan on leaning toward the short side of this market for the most part but I still am not convinced enough to make a large commitment in that direction yet. I would classify myself more as cash on the sidelines than short aka not long but not short.
I do have a semi bullish alternative to all this but I would want to see too many things happen first and until I see some of them occur, I will just sit on that one.
Lee |
