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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)
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To: Javelyn Bjoli who wrote (3902)8/23/1998 12:46:00 PM
From: FMK  Read Replies (3) of 27311
 
Javelyn- good timetable. Here are my thoughts (best guesses).
0) Obtain financing (done).
1) Announce Cellphone contract(September)
2) Announce first Laptop contract (September)
3) Start production in NI (purported - September).
4) Analyst tour of NI plant (late September-early October).
5) Analyst recommendations begin (October)
6) Favorable trade magazine articles begin to appear (Sept-October)
7) Product announcement by Cellphone customer (September-October)
8) Another military contract for the Alliant joint Venture(Sept-Oct)
9) Announce first shipments to customers (Oct-November).
10)Production starts in So.Korea (Nov-December)
11) Cellphone customer starts delivery on new product (December)
12) Laptop/notebook customer start delivery of product with VLNC batteries(guess - late December).
13) Announce more customers for notebook product (guess - November).
14) First 10Q with actual revenues from battery sales (reported in April). This might possibly come 3-months earlier.

Several who have spoken with the company report that everything is going well, and in some cases, better than expected. I believe the number of potential customers receiving samples has increased to somewhere between 15 and 20.

I also believe more than one potential customer is ready to buy and contracts are very close- As of August 12 the company has been discussing "..terms and conditions, prices and delivery schedules." with several. There could also be some developments with GM- Delphi for either or both SLI (Starting Lights Ignition) and Vehicle propulsion batteries. We could also see the formation of another joint venture.

Obviously, the most important event to anticipate that would move the stock is a contract. With 15-20 potential customers testing batteries, many for several months, I would give it a 99% probability that we will have at least one contract by yearend, a 50% chance of seeing one by the first week of September and a 30% chance for next week, which is why it is getting very dangerous for anyone with short positions.
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