RIK:.
Re. Your STUFF to THINK ABOUT:
Thanks for spending the time to put your thoughts & views ( perhaps) on paper.
Here is one guys thoughts, that have been stimulated by your post:
Let me first say that I regard the Strachan Play in question, judged by the criteria of impeccable underlying fundamentals, to be a highly speculative investment. It is speculative and it is indeed an investment for anyone who wants to put their money where their mouth is. Now having said that, it behooves one to glean every single bit of information available to reinforce the judgment or impulse that prompted any person, to become involved with Strachan in the first place. I guess that includes listening to everyone who has any input, regardless of whether it be wildly optimistic or pessimistic. Everyone has to make up their own mind and try to judge the information for what it is worth. I do not doubt for one minute that some of the rumors we hear are for the birds. But no doubt others have a basis in fact. Usually if you see smoke there is a fire. If something walks like a duck and quacks like a duck , it is not usually a chicken. I must say that I admire and respect the engineering knowledge of those qualified to take minuscule bits of information and project them logically to their best possible conclusion of the moment. Likewise I have always respected the wisdom and judgment of seasoned investors. After all what else is there. If one has made up his or her mind on an investment based on the best information available at the moment then one should not panic until better information is available. To quote a Buffetism..~ get greedy when others are fearful and get fearful when others are greedy ~. I would think that at the present Market Value of Junior Oils it would be an real good time to Get Greedy.
I am sure that all your 'Really Believe Points' have answers both pro and con and I am not going to attempt to debate them here, with the exception of your final conclusion. If Apache does not choose to drill a follow up well at this time the Play Will Not Necessarily be Toast. After all they do have a well cased and paid for . They have indications of a gas strike, (maybe or maybe not commercial). They are sitting practically on top of a 'Flow Line', next door to a Gas Plant and that One Well is probably capable of draining, whatever it is connected to. My point is the worst case scenario, that you paint, still has some possible commercial value.
Bob
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