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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum

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To: Brad Bolen who wrote (5803)	8/23/1998 9:37:00 PM
From: Frodo Baxter	of 9980

>Since you say that the solution, devaluations, will add to the contagion, I am curious where you think this will stop. Where do you see this crisis heading/bottoming etc? Okay, imagine these screwed-up countries as Internet stocks. Now just imagine one day that the Bill Fleckensteins of the world actually succeed in driving the stocks down to single-digits. Why? Because they don't make any money. Never did, and prospects for the future are just as iffy. Was the drop irrational pessimism? Nope. The rise was irrational exuberance. Equity (foreign direct investment) and debt (IMF) financing suddenly dries up. Print more stock (inflating currency)? Nah. Stock buybacks (exchange pegs)? No. Where will the Internet stocks end up? I don't know, but I bet in the end, Amazon's market cap shouldn't be higher than Barnes & Noble (Japan will no longer have the 2nd-highest GDP).

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