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Technology Stocks : Ampex Corporation (AEXCA)
AMPX 12.44-8.4%Jan 30 9:30 AM EST
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To: PaddyD who wrote (3268)8/23/1998 10:54:00 PM
From: Ed Perry  Read Replies (1) of 17679
 
>> volume in 1996 is .. 2x .. 1997 is ... 2x ..1998. <<

Ahha! Caught looking at prior price and volume history. Good for you.

Also notice that the apex of volume occurred during the Spring of 96 during the run up from 6 to 15. This is about the most perfect picture of distribution (in the carnal sense) where those who are in unload to a gullible (and greedy) public. If you were long then, you would have been wise to follow up with a tight trendline and have been taken out at about 10. Forget the last 5 points.

Well, if that was distribution, then your description of diminishing volume and declining price must be accumulation. At some point both volume and price will cease their decline, they will either level out or there will be an increase in both.

Notice the period July 95 through Feb 96. There was a huge increase in relative volume but no real price movement out of the 3 1/2 to 5 trading range. I suspect that we will see the same for the upcoming future.

So, in sum what is evolving is the playout of accumulation and distribution accumulation and distribution. I'm sure that there some investors reading this who are steaming at their "obscene - as one put it" losses. At a later time I would like to follow up this point.

Commercial application of digital video must be the initial route of product innovation. Only after the expense and kudos is claimed by an industry leader can adaptations follow which will make to product commercially viable for mass consumer marketing. This route of development is straight out of Andy Grove and Jeffrey Moore.

Ed Perry
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