Paul,
I'm not really too sure about the 12-18 month timeframe being a
viable reality. It could be considerably longer based on current
world-wide economic events/problems. From inception to completion
it takes 12-18 months to build a new fab. I only know of 1 fab that
is under construction, the AMD plant in Dresden, Germany. That fab
was planned before the current downturn hit and it is being subsidized by the German gov't, if I recall correctly. Other than
that, I think that since some fabs are starting to be closed down
that it is unlikely that any new fabs will be built to house 200mm
product wafer production. That being the case, I would argue that
the next round of 300mm fabs won't be started until 0.15uM (and
smaller) device geometries and an entire 300mm equipment set are
available to manufacture at this level. That is probably 24-36
months in the future, at the earliest. If my logic is correct then
the next generation of 300mm fab building will start in late
2001.
In the mean time, productivity enhancements and new technology equipment advances like copper, dual damascene, cmp, high density
etching and low K dielectrics, deep UV lithography at 200mm will
continue to be the bread and butter of the industry for a while.
This means sporatic sales in various fabs to upgrade existing
equipment or to replace "outdated" equipment as productivity
enhancements are required to maintain chip technology leadership.
I estimate that the available "market" for this upgrade technology
will be somewhere around 30-40% of the 1997 market, for the next
2+ years.
Just my opinion,
BB
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