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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 322.32

-5.6%

Jan 30 9:30 AM EST

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To: Big Bucks who wrote (23226)	8/23/1998 11:15:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Big Bucks, >In the mean time, productivity enhancements and new technology equipment advances like copper, dual damascene, cmp, high density etching and low K dielectrics, deep UV lithography at 200mm will continue to be the bread and butter of the industry for a while. This means sporatic sales in various fabs to upgrade existing equipment or to replace "outdated" equipment as productivity enhancements are required to maintain chip technology leadership. I estimate that the available "market" for this upgrade technology will be somewhere around 30-40% of the 1997 market, for the next 2+ years< How do you see the above outlook translating in BTB numbers, and then price targets over the next 12 and 18 months? When I looked at DW AMAT cycle it was almost 12 months exactly from the top of one cycle to the low and then 12 months again from the low to the high. This kind of supports what Lester E. has said about AMAT doubling every 2 or 2.5 years. Could your above senario allow Lester E. doubling to occur on schedule? Paul V.

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