<<Went short at 60. Guess it takes all kinds. I expect the quarter will be worse than preannounced - just like ADI.>>
While you may very well make money, especially if the overall market tanks, you seem to be betting against the house a bit.
1. LLTC has _no_ history of pre-announcement outside of the quarterly earnings reports. This means that we are a full half quarter away from any LLTC generated news. In addition, the market response to that report will depend on the forward look at that time, not the current quarter's results.
2. No other company has a more accurate record of forecasting a full quarter in advance while combined with a transparent balance sheet, leaving little room for managed earnings.
3. NSM's warning included a early report of order improvements, to be verified or not in the early September earnings release.
4. LLTC is far closer to the lower end of it's recent trading range, than to the top, especially considering that the range includes an unexpectedly negative outlook.
5. During Friday's market selloff, LLTC was the only positive semiconductor for much of the day.
Summary - While a short above 65 would seem reasonable, you should be able to find a more vulnerable target with more downside potential. OTOH, your risk level is probably not excessive either, in the short term.
Regards, Don |
