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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)
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To: FMK who wrote (3906)8/24/1998 4:44:00 AM
From: Javelyn Bjoli  Read Replies (2) of 27311
 
FMK,

I think your timetable is way too aggressive for these reasons:

Unlikely that contracts will be announced prior to start of production. Perhaps they will be announced concurrently. I would be surprised if any potential customers are willing to tie their reputations to this company prior to proving itself.

Doubt that cell phone batteries will be made any earlier than January. The equipment is being installed later than the notebook line, and has to run at a much higher unit volume, which will make it harder to debug.

I wonder if analysts from meaningful houses will be willing to make recommendations based only on a plant visit. It seems more in character that they will wait until there are some earnings in print.

I don't remember the timeline for S. Korea startup, but I believe it is pretty far out in time relative to NI. Please add some evidence from the company.

Also, it is pretty aggressive for the company to work on bringing up the notebook and cell phone lines at the same time. There might be enough technicians, but could be a big strain on the R&D scientists and exectives to be in a position to solve several big problems at once. It seems more likely that they would get one running smoothly and then move on to the other.
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