I'll take indexes for 500 Alex.
The answer is: An unweighted average of Coffee, Cocoa, Gold, Platinum, Silver, Hogs, Cattle, Copper, Crude Oil, Wheat, Soybeans, Corn, Heating Oil and Natural Gas.
What is the CRB?
Yes that's right. This vaunted signal of deflationary woes is an UNWEIGHTED average. This means that oil counts the same as platinum, even though platinum's sales will be about $1.8 billion versus $350 billion for oil this year. Is this the measure you are relying on as a predictor of economic and price trends? A bad storm in the Ivory Coast could have as much influence on the CRB as a 1970's style oil crisis. I think you should find a better yardstick.
-Robert |