AAPL @ $60 by January?
When Phil made that prediction a while ago, I called it "on the upper end of the optimistic scale, yet feasible" or words to that effect.
I thought then (as I do know) that only a very positive development could take Apple there. I'd say 28% new users (which is nearly 1/2 according to some :-) is the sort of "very positive development" I had in mind.
Now, keep cool boys and girls, we should not extrapolate too much from one week worth of data. IF the present trend is sustained, I wouldn't want to argue against a $60 forecast (sbout 50% of American households do not own a PC, if the iMac can reach 10 percent of those they would be once again a major player); but that is a big IF. We need to wait and see.
There was a time when if you looked at Apple with a clear mind you would see a company with an outdated OS, an expensive product line, a dysfunctional corporate culture, a bunch of slow computers (as a result of 68XXX0-code and the Microsoft office port), a set of followers loving it to death, a complete lack of focus, and absolutely no ability to deliver on their promises. Being a bear in those circumstances was a no-brainer, and in fact, the only surprising thing was how many people thought otherwise.
By the same token one can see today a company with a refreshed product line, priced competitively, with renewed focus and fast sleek products. All that is good, but still they needed something to get them out of the corner WinTel had placed them. The iMac so far looks as good as anything to do the trick, if they can carry that success until after christmas.
I know bulls here claim that is "obvious" the iMac will carry on with its success, but they said the same of the e-Mate, the newton, exponential, copland, raphsody and so on, so I just don't trust their judgement. I guess when I see my Joe Six-Pack neighbour buy an iMac I'll have proof positive the iMac's strength. Unfortunately being in Europe I cannot gage first hand people's reaction to this baby (before I left most of my friends haven't even heard of the iMac, and most of them are computer geeks, just like YT). |
