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Technology Stocks : CyberGuard Corp. (CYBG)
CYBG 0-100.0%Jul 23 5:00 PM EST

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To: DStandish who wrote (2011)8/24/1998 4:10:00 PM
From: uu  Read Replies (3) of 2616
 
DStandish:

Here is what I can tell (but please note this comes from someone who has lost a great deal of money on this stock not only on paper but in actuality since I sold half of my shares early this morning at $1.7 1 or so).

The reason I sold my half was simply based on the statement that the company faces liquidity problems and there is a possibility that negotiations with new investors "may" fail based on their bookings. If this ends up being the case this stock will most likely become a penny stock at best.

However the company does have a great line of products. It is superior to many of its compettitors. Like I said we use it very widely throught the company (and I do work for a major large corporation). So the company does have something to offer. The problem is their business execution, and at this time and with the credebility that the company lacks I have no idea how they can possibly turn the corner.

Right now a lot of panicing is going on and the stock is under tremendous selling pressure. At some point this panic mode will settle down and the price will have a base. Exactly what the base will be no one knows since everything is run based on emotion at this point.

I believe there is a great chance for Nasdaq to suspend the trading of CYBG (if their net assets fall below the required $30 million - although I am not sure exactly about the $30 million and it could be a little more or less). The stock will then be moved to the pink sheet OTC bulletin board where not much exposure is given to it. Most likely more panicing will go on at that time.

My personal reason for selling only half and not all my shares was purely based on tax write off purposes. It is not my investment style to sell at any cost unless I gain from it. Like I said in my past 2 experiences I did a lot of averaging down (and going through a lot of agony emotionally) before I sold my shares with a significant gain. And I do not see CYBG to be any different. These companies do come back up "eventually" regardless of how bad their management might be.

My only concern at this time is company's lack of cash. The company has solid products and my being long on the stock is simply based on its products and the hope that management will take advantage of that.

So to answer your original question of where do you go from here? Well, it all depends on how emotionally you can control yourself. If you have had some gains that you will have to pay taxes on then by all means go ahead (IMHO of course) and sell enough CYBG shares to offset yoru gains (think of it as easy money comes, easy money goes).

And then hold on to the rest of your CYBG shares. Because at this price you may as well hold on and see what happens. The way I think of it now if I selll my other half position in the stock is 0 * 0 = 0 is the same as 0 * 2 = 0! In other words, the amount of money you get right now does not end up to be much and I doubt it would make a bit of a difference to you if the stock did actually go to 0. (at least that is how I think about it and believe me I still have a significant number of shares).

I know today is painful, but if the company truly has some fundamentals (which I have no way of knowing at this time due to company's lack of credebility) things will end up being ok. Time is the healer of all things. Believe me, I know this and have come to believe in it many times.

Best Regards,

Addi Jamshidi

P.S - And yes there will be class action law suits against the company by the share holders (of which you and I will be included without us knowing about it)!! But in reality it is a bunch of blood sucking lawyers trying to take advantage of the situation. These sort of class action suits will go on for years and share holders will end up getting as high as 1 penny on every $1000 lost. The only people who end up making the big money (and I mean really big money) are the lawyers who get themselves involved with the class action law suits.
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