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Gold/Mining/Energy : Trico Marine Services (TMAR)
TMAR 22.410.0%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST
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To: JZGalt who wrote (716)8/24/1998 7:34:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth  Read Replies (2) of 1153
 
it's odd that Jefferies, in their 'official' downgrade of TMAR in July stated that TMAR had "significant upside potential earnings of $5.10".

however, i've run their numbers twice now and they (a) do not jive with TMAR's past earnings ratios at day rates of $6500 (which they said was their assumption for the 3rd quarter) (b) do not jive with other boats earnings ratios relative their day rates and earnings ratios, (c) nor did their own supporting data jive with current cost ratios overall. they are using significantly increased cost data than would otherwise be used. they do give some interesting predictions regarding jack up rigs in the gulf and day rates for the rigs. otherwise it's a bogus report if TMAR reports $.45 or better for the upcoming quarter. if its a bogus report for the 3rd quarter, their whole analysis is bogus for 1999 and they were engaged in nothing more than short trading the stock.

one aspect of their report is already wrong. in it they stated that 45 new boats would be entering the gulf prior to the end of 1998. this is already bogus. these boat entry plans were dependent on day rates staying above $8000 a day. at most 15 new boats may enter, if that, and these boats are predominantly designed for current contracts for specific work (cable laying, exploration, etc.) with guaranteed day rates prior to build
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