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Strategies & Market Trends : Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe
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To: Real Man who wrote (511)8/24/1998 9:23:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling   of 1301
 
Vi I agree, the oligarchs now have some power again.
This may be a case of "if you can't beat them, join them". Sergei K. may have been on track with reforms but it looks like he alienated everybody, the oligachs, the Duma, Yeltsin. What is most important now is consistency, and hopefully improvement no matter how slow. Victor C. brings certainty into Russia because the West knows him and what he stands for. Markets hate uncertainty, so this is good. The press is blaming Victor C. for the financial crisis. But, I will give him the benefit of the doubt. 1997 had postive growth, and 1998 was sunk by oil prices. Financing the deficit with short term notes was a mistake, but he should of had a financial ministry that knew that. Also, he was stalled by the oligarchs and Yeltsin somewhat. Apparently he has more free decision making now.
It is do or die for both Yeltsin and Victor C. The economy has to turn around to be able to have Yeltsin's legacy be a good one. It also has to be good for Victor C. to become president. Hopefully the oligarchs will be less obtrusive knowing how serious the situation is. They may now believe they have the inside track to the government and might be willing to actually use their financial muscle to help the economy or markets as long as they think they will get something out of it.
I think people will follow Victor C. better than Sergei K. because Victor C. represents Russia and its culture, whereas Sergei K. looked too much like a western business man.
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