I think there is a difference between providing constructive negative feedback, and saying someone does not know what is going on and imply they are manipulating the market. We are always open to constructive negative feedback. The other types of comments just turn me off and are not worthy of consideration.
I am not sure what impact your trading policies have on our firm -- we are not a financial analyst firm that might have you as a client. We are not financial analysts -- we track technologies and markets and help carriers and vendors design and launch new products. We do strategic telecoms plans. We maintain our interest in DSL in the same way that we track frame relay, ATM, etc.
As for Aware specifically, my impression is that they are positioned largely as a supplier of OEM compenents, whereas TeleChoice tracks end-to-end systems, launched services, management of services, etc. We at TeleChoice predominantly focus on Aware/ADI's customers, rather than Aware/ADI itself (something, BTW, they have asked us recently to change our minds on). Aware claims to have lots of deals signed for technology licensing -- I am happy for them and I can only believe that this is correct, for there is no mechanism to validate this, as these deals are most often not announced until the products are ready to ship. Ascend is probably a case in point.
For the areas in which TeleChoice as a firm is focussed -- and therefore the areas where we provide the most attention -- the important things are who is actually offering products on the market for end consumption, and as launched services. In those areas, other vendors have substantial direct successes to point to, across a large number of trials, and, soon, orders. We expect U S WEST, BT and GTE to announce significant orders in the next weeks to come, for deployment starting in 1Q, 1997, and that's where our focus as a firm is, as that is what we feel matters to the marketplace. All of this will benefit Aware/ADI as its clients launch those products when they do, but others are farther down that curve right now, and the U S WEST, BT and GTE deals are all likely to be either S-HDSL or CAP ADSL, not DMT/DWMT, as far as I know. The time frames for tightly integrated, widely available, low cost DMT solutions is not in 1996, from what our carrier clients assure us. We have to trust them at their word. If you know of something different, let me know.
BTW, when we start seeing Aware/ADI chipsets in shipping products in volume deployments, as a firm we still will be focusing on things like standardization, differential features, overall modem cost, remote manageablility, etc., not which chip set is used. We have no means to compare the Aware/ADI chipset, with MOT's or Alcatels, etc. It is not our area, and I do not believe you will hear us making statements comparing chipset capabilities. So in your discussions with KT, you might have heard more ambivalence and lack of interest, than a strong negative statement.-db |
