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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.
AAPL 278.72+0.5%Dec 10 3:59 PM EST
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To: Phillip C. Lee who wrote (17227)8/25/1998 3:06:00 AM
From: Eric Yang  Read Replies (1) of 213176
 
Phil, RE: "I think Soup's estimate of $2.00 in '98 is feasible and likely, which is equivalent to $0.79 in the current quarter. "

To be honest with you I don't think we'll be able earn $0.79 cents which is about $125 million in Q4. However, I do feel quite confident that Q4 earnings will be well ahead of $0.47 consensus estimate which is about $70 million. I did some projections and heavy number crunching over the last few days. My current estimate is at around $102 mil range. If it all goes well, it'll be the first 9 digit profit we've seen (excluding one time gain/charge) in a long time. I'll post the calculations in a couple days.

Positive Q4 earnings surprise will be great but I think there will a lot more to cheer about this time. I expect both revenue and unit shipment to soar this quarter. Current estimate for Q4 unit shipment is at 760,000-800,000 range, with revenue topping 1550 mil.

In other words I think we'll see a 160+K increase in unit shipment over the 644K units we had in Q3. That is HUGE. Revenue should also increase by $140+ mil over the $1404 mil in Q3.

Wall Street has been saying that they want to see growth. I think the combination of 1) earnings surprise 2)increase unit shipment 3)increase revenue will prove to them quite convincingly that Apple is growing again.

Eric
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