CHARTS AND TA, A UNIQUE APPROACH Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : CHARTS AND TA, A UNIQUE APPROACH

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To: flickerful who wrote (1294)	8/25/1998 1:13:00 PM
From: stan s.	Read Replies (3) of 1391

Hi flickerful, shhhhhh.... I am NOT reopening the thread...just a quiet place to leave a chart....had a request for a DOW chart. I'm leaving it here in case anyone has me bookmarked and is interested, maybe no one does. I'm posting it to you 'cause I'd feel like an idiot posting it to myself. People would think I'm nuts, course it's gonna be on my profile page....geeeez. Plus I knew you'd want to see it. Why am I whispering? A couple of things to note on the following chart. This is a WEEKLY chart, meaning each Candlestick is a weekly result. The exception is the most recent Candle 'cause the week ain't over. This chart goes back to April'97. It's the DJ30. geocities.com I've plotted 4 of the common momentum indicators in the top box....Note that their values change from days to weeks, i.e. the 14 day RSI becomes the 14 week RSI etc. You can see how oversold these indicators are....you can see what's happened before when they pull UP out of oversold triggering their respective "buy" lines. Just follow the green vertical lines. By the way the trigger lines are color coded with each respective indicator. Buy signals have been triggered...with the exception of the white RSI14....it technically didn't dip low enough, it rarely does as the chart attests. As you can see the index has done well after each grouping of indicators has crossed UP out of oversold.....the index drifts down as indicators drop down through the trigger lines from overbought. I think the least of the UP moves after the appropriate signals has been 500 points before the ensuing downturn. The current buy signals are STILL VERY YOUNG and can reverse. Traditionally, a safer signal and a much simpler one....look at the blue line that's meshed with the Candles. That's the 6 day...in this case, week, weighted moving average. Note what happens when the security or index closes ABOVE the moving average for the first time after a downturn. It has signaled a nice run on this chart every time. The reverse is pretty much true as well as the security dips below the average after a run up. Note how it correlates with the green line as well. This technique keeps you on the right side of the move.... The rest of the indices are pretty much following this pattern, including the !OEX. I still anticipate a little short term weakness...perhaps a test of support levels, if they hold.....one more leg up looks like a distinct possibility. Again the above is a weekly chart and it can take awhile for movements to materialize. Stuff to ponder....just because these indicators have been accurate lately...times and events change...blah, blah. Gawd this is STILL a lot of work. Uh, see ya.......better check and make sure you weren't followed (; Stan

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