Trico Marine Services (TMAR) Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Trico Marine Services (TMAR)

TMAR 22.42

-0.2%

Nov 6 12:12 PM EST

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To: JZGalt who wrote (748)	8/25/1998 4:09:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (2) of 1153

i ran worst case scenario of $4k day rates at 60% utilization for the gulf, $13K day rates north sea with current utilization (given contract times of 2 years average) $6K day rates for lift at 75% utilization (given contracts) and $2K rates for crew boats at 91% utilization, and still come up with $37 million in quarterly revenue which translates into $1.52 earnings for 1999. this assumes no stock buy-back. 60% utilization would assume about 85 rigs in the gulf, a 25% drop from the current. this would assume rig utilization dropping to 65% from the current 85%. no one is projecting that. this is silly time with these stock prices. until credible data is forthecoming we'll hold. i'll post less often from here as, frankly, the price drops are not credible relative to earnings/potential and/or ratios. the soes traders are taking this at will/ possibly relative to upcoming option pricing. it's a shakeout/shakedown you keep oil at $12 for ALL of 1999, and you'll should still have about 100 rigs operating in the gulf

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