Looks like no one noticed that Candies reported earnings of $.21 per share today ($.03 above expectations). There was a brief mention in thestreet.com
"...Despite the market's afternoon swoon, Tony Dwyer, chief
market strategist at Ladenbrug Thalmann, remains
convinced a short-term bottom was established Friday,
when the Dow slid to as low as 8328.20 and the S&P 500
touched 1054.92. "I don't think we go to new highs by next
week, but we're building a base. We'll rally a bit, retest lows
and build a good foundation for a rally over the next three to
six months," Dwyer said. "Today fits with my whole thinking.
We're basing out. It's not going up in a straight line, but it
has bottomed and will take time to recover."
Key to his conviction is an outlook that the familiar litany of
problems in emerging markets, the deflationary impact of
Asia's economic woes and the political crises in the White
House have all been accounted for by market forces, as
evidenced by the fact the average stock is down some 35%
from its all-time high. "I do not debate the negatives. They're
there," the strategist said. "The beauty of this game is
[people concerned about those negatives] are right. The
reality is, it's in the market. It's discounted already."
Dwyer maintains year-end targets of 9200 for the Dow and
2000 for the Nasdaq Composite, which he views as "fair
value" for the indices. Because of the "rotational" nature of
the blue-chip market, he does not expect the big-cap
indices to suffer the same kind of bear market as small- and
mid-cap stocks, but said that "as you get closer to 9200, I'll
be less optimistic."
Moreover, the strategist is less concerned about the public
face of equities than its current lepers, small- and mid-cap
stocks, which he believes will "significantly outperform"
blue-chips in the coming 12 months, "because that's where
the value is." Dwyer said he likes consumer cyclicals,
retailers and specialty retailers as favored sectors and
mentioned Candie's (CAND:Nasdaq) as the kind of
overlooked, maligned stock that will rise.
Today, Candie's released a positive earnings surprise and
announced an "immediately accretive" acquisition. The
company has a backlog that is "fabulous," Dwyer said,
adding the stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio below 10
times projected 1999 earnings. Yet the stock fell 3/32, or
1.3%, to 6 31/32 today. "Right now they're still ignoring
them, but portfolio managers are coming around to see there
is a lot of value there," he said. "The question is, when are
all the negative news items going to be off the cliff? They
already have. How many times do you need to bang your
head on the rocks?"
At least once more, judging by today's performance.... |
