Truman:
My compliments on an excellent post! You found the major holes in my arguement, and I wish it were possible to go back and fill them.
I can list the "I shoulda saids," but they will sound a bit lame in retrospect. Also, I don't intend to continue the discussion from a defensive crouch. <G>
I will ask, however, if it is true that all subscribers to the newsletter simply shrugged their shoulders when BB turned up missing? No concern at all? If so, then whatever it costs is clearly worth it to have such peace of mind.
For my part, I intended to start unloading most of my positions in early July, but BB's "calm and soothing voice (ha!)" convinced me to hang on for a while. The market dropped, and he convinced me again that a turnaround was imminent. Then, other market pundants began to clammer, and I was really kicking myself for listening to BB's "calm and soothing voice." Was I an unhappy camper? You bet I was. And when I heard some of the callers to his show who were even more upset than me, it was pretty clear that he had led a lot of people down a primrose path, and then apparently abandoned them (and me, too) in the dark and musty shadows. If he depends so much on his model, what was that magic model telling him after the latest turmoil? Had anything changed? I mean, that model got me stuck where I was, by acting against my own instincts, and I wanted to see the map.
So, all of you "true believers" are probably right. The only ones who should listen to BB on the radio, much less follow his advice, are those who subscribe to his newsletter. He owes absolutely nothing at all to his nonsubscribing radio audience, and in fact, he would probably be completely justified in deceiving them intentionally. Maybe a 'secret key code' in the newsletter would allow the 'true believers' to decode any misleading remarks. Then, the Cult of Brinker could prosper in the markets, and those of us who merely listen would be condemned to merely routine returns.
Again, Truman, my compliments on your post. Very well written, and pointed the dagger of debate right to the crux.
jim |
