John,
Thanks for bringing that up: Good Point on how does an analyst add the already earned 0.96 to his estimate of 0.56 and come up with 1.70; I asked the same question when I first received the Paine Webber estimate; check out the note I put at the bottom of the post:
techstocks.com
Even Rodman, Renshaws numbers don't add correctly, but they are at least closer: 0.96 + 0.58 = $1.56; initially I was just given the R&R estimate for the year and so I "assumed" R&R's fourth quarter estimate was 0.60---wrong again--I guess if you are an analyst you are allowed that latitude. It is a coincidence though I was just thinking about PW's discrepancy on the way home just now. Thought I would attempt to find out who the analyst at PW is and drop him/her an Email asking for an explanation. But I won't be surprised if CWEI actually earns $1.70 for the year--it is a stretch but if their production is ahead of last quarter they can do it. I'll let you know if I track down the PW analyst. In the meantime I have asked Lajuanda Holder (Email), CWEI IR, again about new estimates from Hanifen, Imhoff and Morgan Keegan--those analysts were out of the office last week. Morgan Keegan is the one who has yet to submit their new estimate to Zacks. Morgan Keegan (presently rating CWEI a Hold) is talking about doing a new write-up + change their rating on CWEI as soon as CWEI firms up their exploration plans on the Pinnacle Reef wells. Paine Webber is Neutral and I think these ratings came about when CWEI stumbled when they first went public and in the '93/'94/'95 time frame, creating not too good of a situation for PW and others who took them public. I would think that now that CWEI is on track that both of these ratings will change in just a matter of time--that will make a major difference. Zacks, Rodman, Renshaw, and Hanifen, Imhoff have CWEI rated a Strong Buy.
Kendell, I was thinking the same way you were--might not be a bad time to hedge some futures--guarantee good oil prices in the first quarter of '97. CWEI will easily better '96 first quarter numbers, with, or without, hedging.
Buzz |
