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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: Vitas who wrote (25201)8/26/1998 7:06:00 AM
From: Philipp  Read Replies (3) of 94695
 
I have looked at quite a number of wave counts in the last few days. No two counts agreed exactly and there were quite a lot of different major counts, but most of them seemed to predict that a major correction was just ahead. This suggests to me that there is some subconscious bias in the wave counters' minds that affects the counting. Also, if everyone actually agrees that a major crash-like correction is about to happen, that is a strong contrarian indicator. Crashes occur when most people don't expect them, but suddenly turn gloomy and start to panic. I would therefore argue that a necessary prerequisite for a 29-/87-like event is a period of increased bullishness just before it occurs. The short relief rally last week, followed by the present sideways movement does not yet qualify for that. I decided to delay buying additional puts until market sentiment has become more bullish again.

Good trading to all,

Phil
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