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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)
ASND 212.33+1.1%Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: bucky89 who wrote (52801)8/26/1998 8:37:00 AM
From: Steve Morytko  Read Replies (2) of 61433
 
Agreed. So far LU's mostly bought the "also ran's" in data networking - and not for insignificant amounts of cash/stock. I would not be surprised to see them get a major haircut when some begin noticing that these recent acquisitions are not paying off.

For instance, how many RAC's did LU sell this past Q? Livingston deal may not have been so great (and it sure would overlap with ASND) eh?

LU is over-hyped. I suspect that management still has some leftover Ma Bell thinking - kind of like "we are, therefore we're great". Probably stems from growing up in the AT&T monopoly (no competition). The "market" seems to love them too. Maybe it's the Bell Labs aura. As others have pointed out though, Bell Labs is/was a great think tank but they were often short on bringing actual products to market.

How about doing some downside math (e.g. 0.6*60=??).

Perhaps the market assumes that since they have great penetration on the voice side that they can just walk into an account and steal the data side too - that is WAY WRONG. I'll bet few data network managers even think of LU today when looking for solutions.

If LU decides it's time to buy a serious contender in the data market they should be paying a significant premium. Does anyone think LU's competitors will let ASND go without one? I don't buy Tim's theory and it sure sounds illegal to me - jail time illegal.

I disagree with the idea that ASND/LU marriage makes LU a data networking powerhouse and that LU stock will soar as a result. ASND has a niche, and by no means are they anywhere near the likes of CSCO, BAY, and 3COM. ASND would be one of several acquistions necessary for LU to compete broadly with CSCO.

Remember too that LU products attempt to compete in many of the same markets as ASND. They seem more like a competitor to me - one with an overvalued stock price.

However, ASND probably realizes that they can't stand alone in their niche forever. This is their "day in the sun" which may come to an end in a few quarters. Now would be a good time to get a premium price in a buyout but I would continue to evaluate them mostly on fundamentals. It's entirely possible that they believe they have a very secure niche that's enhanced/solidified by the CSRA acquisition.

Should be an interesting 3 months ahead. I'll bet day traders like Tim like the way ASND is moving around lately too.

Steve

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