Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 294.18

-7.7%

12:03 PM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (23342)	8/26/1998 11:13:00 AM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (4) of 70976

When to buy: Right now, I have about 300 better places for my money, as a result of the bear market in transports, and small caps. The short term business outlook for the cap equips is awful, for all the reasons stated here ad nauseum. I am not confident in a 1999 recovery. Personally, I need to see drastic measures taken by Japan which will allow the Asian distortions to slow and reverse. Right now, the US and Europe are the only "safe havens," and europe will go to one currency, which will be sure to cause temporary dislocations. Furthermore, amat's price is too high based on the 1 year outlook. Granted that this is my interpretation using a model that serves me well. Bottom line: Asia has to improve or amat has to become very cheap. Today, cheap looks like 23. I am uninterested until it approaches that number.

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