Dear Charles and Thread,
There are posters here who say that the fundamental
research and basic understanding were completed long
ago. I also believe this.
Many of our posters have a better than average
understanding of the product, the concept, the
mechanics and technology involved, the application and
the sector in general, and in particular the various
significant players - Texaco, etc.
A lot of SI threads have this kind of sincere interest and
very broad research posted to them. Our RNTK thread
does this (I also think of TAVA in this respect) This is
part of our wealth here on SI, and personally I enjoy it.
We each have our forte, it seems, and a lot of its
expression goes beyond what is necessary for a sound
investment decision, much in the same way that some
employees continue to work on a project while others
are calling it a day and going home, or in the way that
an A student continues her studies beyond what was
necessary for the achievement of the grade.
Today, our society is able and willing to make
provision for the achievements of amateurs as well as
professionals. I think this is part of the allure and
richness of the internet: not only is there access to the
information and experience provided by professionals
and recognized experts in any particular field of
endeavor, but also to what is achieved and presented by
many others who, through diligence and
enthusiasm,intelligence and imagination, can present
something of value outside their own specific careers or
professions.
However, it is my opinion that all the information about
RNTK that is presented on this thread is now useless in
terms of moving the price up beyond where it is. It may
do this elsewhere, off the SI site, but not here, and so,
as David Sheridan noted, we are more given to a
playfulness and humor that allows us to get know each
other better in other ways besides being fellow
investors (psychologists and therapists often are
interested in what occurs during their clients' home lives
during routine and typical days...how much time is
spent simply being present and interacting as
individuals with separate and disparate interests that go
beyond what are basic family issues and topics)
There is also a lot posted here that is not either one of
these things- not research, and not individual play- and
this is the large volume of rumor and plain guessing.
This is inevitable.
The circulation or posting of rumor, and the role it
plays in decision making in the market, may be
deliberate for various reasons and private agendas.
Current rumor may also just be a reiteration or a
variation of earlier rumor, a reinterpretation based on
more recent events.
Rumor may be deception, or it may be totally honest-
honest in the sense that sometimes private investors
take 2+2, so to speak, and come up with 4, even though
this 4 not be present in any official or authorized
statement. In an instance such as this, when one starts
adding things up, the rumor simply seems to make sense.
It appeals to ones knowledge and intelligence.
Sometimes though, rumor appeals to ones own wishful
thinking or desires, ones own uncertainty. It affirms
what one hopes for, not what one actually knows for a
fact. It is this aspect of rumor that bothers me. I
personally don't believe that hope has a place in the
market, for hope often gets mistaken for willingness to
accept a risk that is based on knowledge, which must be
a given if one is to succeed in the market.
So, sometimes rumor can appeal to us on an intellectual
level, which is risk-taking, or on an emotional level,
which I think is dangerous compared to normal
risk-taking. Each one of us must decide for ourselves
just how it is that rumor affects us.
Regarding RNTK, I think anything has an equal chance
of happening. Intellectually, I am prepared to accept
that this deal with TX, for example, may not even
materialize, or that it may happen far down the road
from here, maybe not even until next year. Personally, I
don't think it is going to happen anytime soon. My
sense of history, especially RNTK'S history of rumor,
tells me this. To me, it just doesn't make any sense that
an announcement of any such deal is really nearby.
Also, I am prepared to accept that the effect of any such
announcement may not be all that glorious in terms of
trading volume and stock price increase, in which case there could very well be a large and hasty rush for the door after profits are taken on a small increase applied to large positions accumulated at lower, earlier prices.
So far, RNTK has become a long term investment for me, and one
with no reasonable return so far, considering the length
of time I have been holding it. Actually, I would have
done far better elsewhere with the same amount of
money, watching and waiting for a better time to enter
RNTK.
On the other hand, I may be surprised any day now.
However, the truth is: I don't know...not really. And I
don't think anyone else does either...not really.
For me, it is best that I not count on anything here with
RNTK. What will be, will be.
"We come to the market from various walks of life and
bring with us the mental baggage of our upbringing and
prior experiences. Most of us find that when we act in
the market the way we do in our everyday life, we lose
money.
Succes or failure in the market depends on our thoughts
and feelings. It depends on our attitudes toward gain
and risk, fear and greed, and how we handle the
excitement of trading and risk.
Most of all, our success or failure depends on our
ability to use our intellect rather than act out our
emotions...
To be a winner in the market, we must know ourselves
and act cooly and responsibly. The pain of losing scares
people into looking for magic methods. At the same
time, they discard much of what is useful in their
professional or business backgrounds..."... by Dr.
Alexander Elder
Best,
Charliss |
