As always, Lucius, a very thoughtful response. I hope you continue to hang around the thread and chime in from time to time (I think I see you over on CSCO occassionally too).
You're absolutely right on this being a large-cap market, and I also agree that it's probably not going to change any time soon. I stopped fighting it this year and put most of my money in large caps, and the stock portion of my portfolio is still up 30% as a result. In fact, CELL is the only small company I still own, for the reasons stated yesterday. I do think that even meeting estimates would probably cause a big jump in this stock; the market seems to be anticipating recession, deflation and negative earnings growth all at once, and that's not going to happen. That said, the problem with a new 52-week low is it's anybody's guess where the bottom is.
I disagree that the longer we hang around, the more likely we are to go lower; in fact, I've heard some say the opposite. This seems to be a post-correction workout phase, and as long as 8316-1055-1750 (or even 1715) hold, then the next substantial move will be up. I think we're just forming a bottom here, and it's the time to be looking at what you want to buy, not selling into weakness.
I disagree on Japan's effect. I think they've been so second-rate for so long that this may just be a belated acknowledgement of that. What I'd like to see is for the world to stop waiting with baited breath for them to act in a way that won't siphon off resources needed for future growth. The world is just going to have to figure another way out of this, or wait it out. I wish Hong Kong had put some of their intervention money to work cleaning up their domestic economy; it probably would have had the same effect.
Will pick up Forbes at lunchtime. Good luck to you too.
Paul |
