RE: "history teaches me that after a huge 16-24 year run ups in stock prices, when traditional valuations are cast aside and suckers spend their time proving why exactly traditional valuations are wrong and that there is a New Era, after all of this there is ALWAYS a terrible multy-year series of bear markets when the said suckers lose all or nearly all the money they have."
As having lived (and invested) through the 1966 through 1982 period, I recognize that there will probably be another 16 year period where the market is in the crapper. (Of course, that statement is based on past performance, which may not be indicative of future results. <g>) I recognize that we've had a 16-year period of great stock market performance since 1982 and the odds of it extending indefinitely are remote, at best.
Regarding your question: is now a good time to buy stocks? It may not be the ideal time to buy stocks (that was 1982), but it is probably a fine time to buy some companies. Even many of the stocks that I purchased at the "top" in 1966, when the Dow was at about 1000, have increased in value significantly.
Please note that I am not blindly buying everything. Recently I sold MCD at $74 and CL at $94 (for huge gains in both cases, I might add). However, as far as the overall market, I think that there are far too many people shouting SELL for anything but a nice rally from here, probably to the vicinity of all time highs.
Best wishes,
I2 |
