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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: GUSTAVE JAEGER who wrote (480)8/26/1998 12:52:00 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen  Read Replies (2) of 3536
 
Gustave,

As a charter member of the currency mob I agree with your sentiments about why the dollar will be strong against Europe. The US budget deficit and national debt numbers are superior to any major economy in Europe. In addition Germany will take a major hit on Russia. Also official protestations to the contrary, the EU states do not want a stronger Euro. They need job growth to sell the Euro to the various electorates and a strong currency will make that more difficult. In fact the French have, as usual, got themselves tied up in semantic knots. They are travelling the globe trying to sell the Euro as a strong currency because they want to be able to sneer at the US. At the meantime they want to argue for a devaluationist approach to promote jobs.

As to why the 'currency mob' is not trashing the European currencies at the moment is not because they are trying to insure a smooth transition for Schroeder. The big question vis a vis the future for the Euro will be how many non European central banks will want to diversify into Euros as a reserve asset and wether that will support the Euro for a time. If that were not an issue I believe the European currencies would be under greater pressure now.

Henry
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