Understanding Armstrong:
You asked me earlier about Armstrong. From my observation over years, Armstrong is a cyclist who, based on considerable research, hypothecates that there are certain financial, political and other cycles that repeat themselves with regularity which affect the Dow, Bonds, Agriculture, Gold etc. At times, these cycles do indeed repeat with such remarkable regularity that if they hold to form, one can predict years in advance as to a given consequence and the proximate date thereof. I suspect, that in response to a cyclical outlook, Armstrong develops a theory to support the event which the cycle is forecasting. If the cycle persists, he looks like a clairvoyant.
However, unfortunately, cycles at times tend to disappear or invert, in which event his well-sounding theories are of no avail. I have not seen his studies, but perhaps this is reason for his change in his outlook for gold. That is, since the gold cycle did not materialize as expected, or inverted, he rationalizes reasons for this and substitutes a future outlook for gold based on a cycle date when the cycle should reappear. Although Armstrong is often wrong, his theories are based on a more scientific analysis in accordance with his background rather than a "gut feel" as many appear to rely on. Consequently, as I also prejudicially believe there is merit in cycle analysis, I would much rather have him supporting my investment position than to oppose it.
From my web observation, there appears to be a constant search by many for a guru who will foretell the direction of stocks or gold, and by doing so, lead them to profit. The unfortunate truth is there is no such person. The best one can hope for is to develop a sound money management plan, observe market conditions and weigh risk/reward probabilities in accordance with the plan, and to constantly keep in mind that the best market procrastinator is the market itself and "The trend is your friend".
With this in mind, the market is obviously at a critical juncture. Although it is expected by many to believe that gold will drop considerably further, this a natural occurrence at any market bottom. And one may take encouragement that the market has held as well as it has during seasonal weakness and in face of extreme negative sentiment. And one can hypothecate considerable cogent reasons to support a conviction that the market is in the process of forming a bottom, and at times stocks appear to undergoing accumulation to support this.
Conversely, gold nor stocks refuse to rally for any apparent justifiable reason even though they are at historically low prices; and the path of least resistance still appears to be down. Of course this may quickly change because of an event or change in market psychology. But at this point of time, the naked truth is that it has not so and anyone taking a bullish position in the market has to contend with that poignant fact.
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