Ramsey, >Without the over building, how profitable would these semi eq company be?< I agree with your statement with many of the companies. Many of them will bankrupt. The remaining few, IMO, will gain additional market share and become more monopolistic. I can not see AMAT going belly up since the SEMI's (intc, mot,txn,etc) must have the equipment to make their semiconductors for all the electronic equipment we are and will see in the future. We are just starting to see the explosion of the electronic equipment.
Now, if the clock turns back and we go back to the industrial and agricultural age I agree with you that the SEMI's and the equipment makers like AMAT will not make it. However, I do not see that in the cards. In fact, I see the reverse only held back buy the current Banks lending practices to the Fabs for purchasing equipment.
IMO, it is not if, but when will the turn around be? When Wall Street perceives, real or imaginary, that the bottom has be reached and the turn around is here then AMAT, the Gorilla of the equipment makers, will jump very quickly like it did in July 1996-'97.
The key to to have ready cash to buy when the turn around occurs.
Just my $.02.
Paul V. |
