To all- interesting times.
I agree with hoofbeat article,we should make him an honorary member of our group. Find it at http;//www.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-5574785
I feel AT&T will do any dirty trick to put off this merger, because they know that the combined company will be stiff competition to them.
I feel that Mike Birck and Tellab's board want this deal real bad, but that stockmarket's overreaction to AT&T manuevers, and pressure from fund shareholders holding 82% of Tellab's, will force them to try and redo deal. I look for deal to be in range of .8-.85 share of Tellab's for each share of Ciena.
IMHO Acording to my calculations, with this deal going through, Tellab's stock price range will from $42-$93,with a average of $68 for the year 1998,that infers a average PE of 40,with a range of PE's from 35 to 50. For 1999, with the deal going through,I feel that Tellab's price will be ranging from $76 to $108, with an average of $85, again with a average PE of 40 and a range or PE's from 35 to 50, and getting $.07 per share net from Coherent in '99.
Remember,that Mike has a 10% plus stake in the old Tellab's or a position worth about $200 million, so I feel that his interests are for long term stock price appreciation, the same as ours.
My figures take into account, a 9% dilution in net income per share due to this deal, in both 1998 and 1999 with an additive affect kicking in later.
That opinion stated,I feel that it is hard to make money in the short term, due to rumors, Co.A,arbs,board meetings,daily news articles fear,lack of information, major options positions,increased volume of trades, etc.
But if your view is longer term, namely 1.5 to 5 years,you will be hard pressed to find a better place to stick your money, than in Tellab's.
I refuse to address the issue of how to make money in the short term ,by somehow taking a position in Ciena's stock ( down 45 % in one day,due to AT&T dirty tricks.)
Good Hunting.
DAVE DICKERSON |
