Return of the Oligarchs
By Rod Pounsett
Russia could be back under the control of the oligarchs. I am told it was they, the bankers, big business moguls and close advisers who pushed President Boris Yeltsin into the seemingly incomprehensible act of sacking the entire government for the second time this year and reinstalling Victor Chernomyrdin as Prime Minister. Yes Chernomyrdin, the man Yeltsin sacked earlier this year claiming he was not up to the job.
The oligarchs apparently saw the ousted prime minister Sergei Kiriyenko as the greatest threat to their empires because he is too straight and cannot be manipulated. They feared with Kiriyenko in place there would be no life line for their failing banks and businesses. Although not a pushover, Chernomyrdin proved himself more manageable by the oligarchs during his last term in office. While he may not be open to corruption, they feel he is more likely to be sympathetic to their cause because they helped get him the prime minister's job last time round and have engineered his reinstatement.
My contacts in Moscow believe Yeltsin's daughter, Tatyana Borisovna, and Valentine Yumashev, head of the presidential administration, may have also had a major influence in the decision to sack the government. Although their motivation would have more to do with saving Yeltsin's neck in the face of the escalating economic crisis besetting Russia.
The 36-year-old Kiriyenko is, however, showing a pragmatic face toward his demise. He says that, although he believes neither he nor his team have done anything to justify the sacking, the president's decision does not come as a surprise. He also says he accepts Yeltsin's explanation for why he is bringing Chernomyrdin back into office. At least Chernomyrdin has experience in running the government.
In fact, during a conversation with Kiriyenko on Sunday, Yeltsin added further mystification to his decision. During an hour-long private meeting, in which Yeltsin was gushing with compliments (totally out of character), he apparently told his young hitherto prot‚g‚ that he was more than happy with his performance and he had no regrets about his decision to appoint him. While expressing his sorrow at having to "let him go" he said that current circumstances demanded this course of action.
Yeltsin is said to have proceeded to predict a bright future for Kiriyenko and they even discussed possible new jobs, such as a senior post in one of the state-controlled enterprises or banks. Apparently Gazprom and Sberbank were mentioned. A staffer told me this: "Yeltsin promised Kiriyenko he will be looked after."
Kiriyenko will not, however, accept a post in Chernomyrdin's government if it is offered.
While Kiriyenko is showing no signs of animosity toward Yeltsin, his staff is not so generous in their comments about the sacking of their boss. They believe it raises serious questions about Yeltsin's judgment. As a senior staff member put it, "How can he sack Chernomyrdin for not being competent and too slow with reforms then bring him back into the same job five months later?"
There is also widespread concern throughout the administration over how the world, and in particular the financial markets, will react to Yeltsin's decision. Kiriyenko and his team had built up a good reputation internationally as the most reform-minded Russian government yet. There may be concern that Chernomyrdin's reputation as caucus reformer will cast doubts on Russia's ability to take the necessary action to get itself out of trouble.
Personally I am as mystified by Chernomyrdin's willingness to resume the prime minister's role as I am by Yeltsin's decision to sack Kiriyenko's government. The tough measures, which even the cautious Chernomyrdin will be forced to take over the next few months, will do nothing for his popularity. Any ambitions he might have had about becoming the next president of Russia are bound to disintegrate as the Russian people feel the full effects of the worsening crisis. Even without Yeltsin's help, they are bound to blame Chernomyrdin.
The caveat to that argument, however, could be in a conspiracy theory suggested to me by a Moscow insider. It was suggested that the oligarchs may have decided that Yeltsin is so past his expiration date that there is a real chance they could have him dismissed on medical grounds and get Chernomyrdin into his seat under some quirk of the constitution with no necessity of testing the ballot box.
|
