SAP A.G. Message Board - Msg: 5595638

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Technology Stocks : SAP A.G.

SAP 241.69

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Dec 2 3:59 PM EST

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To: Hot Diggoty who wrote (2391)	8/26/1998 4:17:00 PM
From: mauser96	Read Replies (4) of 3424

Listening to CNBC is usually not very productive, but today was an exception. Stanley Drukenmiller, who runs $20 billion worth of Soros and Quantum funds was interviewed. This guy is very smart, one of the highest paid people on Wall Street. Just a few things I got from the interview.... In April they were bearish, but they believe there has been a big change.. put call figures, high bearish sentiment makes "the risk of a market meltup higher than the risk of a market meltdown" and today they are bulls on US and western Europe markets. Breadth is a lagging not leading indicator. Used words "very compelling evidence of a bottom" Said his view time span is 3 to 6 months. World divided into haves (US, western Europe) and have nots (almost everybody else). There is a global debt liquidation going on. Countries that live by exporting goods in a time of falling prices have got big problems. Japanese politicians are spending their time fighting with each other while their house burns down. Russia stock market gone,Boris Yeltsin is already gone except as a figurehead Fixed exchange rates almost guaranteed to fail eventually The US will continue to be a place that money flows to. Since only about 20%?? of US GDP in this kind of tangible commodity goods we are hurt less, and makes them cheap for us to buy from others. Thinks it's a good thing Greenspan resisted other members of fed that wanted to raise rates because deflation is the global problem and raising rates would have been a disaster. Here in US real interest rates (ie adjusted for inflation) are high and he implied that next fed direction more likely to be down than up..... Says contrary to popular opinion, he expects any move up in stocks to be lead by "overpriced" high caps, not small caps........ Note some of what he said is reinforced in the last issue of Forbes. Makes me lose a bit less sleep over my exposure to the US equity market.

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