Bald Man,
Re:The volume today is not large enough to indicate a bottom,
That is precisely why I do not think we are headed lower. Last Dec., we had a 35M(??) share day followed by another heavy volume day, after the news came out that the problems in asia were deep rooted and systemic and not going away overnight. We seem to have a new basing patter occurring right now for many in this sector. SFAM, WFR and many others are at new lows, while AMAT is trading slightly above its Jan low. AMAT trades in tandem with its peers and is not hitting new lows(yet). I think the market is giving AMAT a premium it deserves as the Gorilla it is. When the upturn begins, AMAT will have the broadest line of low-k, copper tools of anyone on the block, along with additional market share in every category. And KIM that AMAT is still making $$ on an operating basis, something no other front end company can lay claim to. Yesterdays announcement was simply that charges would bring NI into the red. It was not a preannouncement.
Re:The outlook is worse than 1996, yet it is still trading at 30
compared to 10 in 1996
As Justa pointed out, AMAT is trading at the same valuation levels it was at its trough in 96 in terms of P/B, P/S when compared with the Dow! This is not the same market as in 96. We were only several months into a downturn which could have lasted for ears, while now we are at the 3 year point for this down cycle. Most cycles do not last for 3 years, so I think its safe to say we are closer to the end than the beginning<G>
BK
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