Adam, thread, a positive view of Intel stock, at the end of an overall bearish market sentiment article, courtesy Yahoo:
biz.yahoo.com
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Wednesday August 26, 6:29 pm Eastern Time
Wall Street stock analysts warily eye Russian
bear
By Jennifer Westhoven
NEW YORK, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Amid mounting international worries,
many Wall Street analysts are counseling investors not to view current
weakness in the U.S. stock market as a buying opportunity.
They point to the banking meltdown in Russia as another sign that the Asian fiscal crisis is turning
into one of global proportions -- one that might be able to derail U.S. stocks.
Russia is not a major player in the U.S. economy by any stretch of the imagination. The United States
exports $3.3 billion of goods to Russia, about a half percent of the total $589 billion of exports,
putting Russia on equal footing with Sweden.
''While we don't export or import much to them, we've all been very gleeful about the fabric of
increased world trade,'' said George Jacobsen, a money manager at Trevor Stewart Burton &
Jacobsen. ''This is the downside. You're no longer isolated.''
Jacobsen said it is too early yet to be an aggressive seller of U.S. stocks. Rather, he said investors
should be cautious about buying before a material sign of improvement appears.
''Sit back, be cautious and take out excessive risk from portfolios,'' he said. ''It looks like the bond
market is going to do well, so you have something to do with your money.''
At J.P. Morgan, U.S. strategist Doug Cliggott, still a believer in the long-term bull market, is also
eyeing bonds.
''The whole set of events unfolding casts a negative bias to global growth, which hurts expected
earnings growth. It's one more chink in the view of heightened volatility,'' he said.
Assuming a 5.50 percent average yield on the long bond and five percent earnings growth for U.S.
companies over the next 12 months, he expects the Standard & Poor's 500 average to be fairly valued
at 1120 next year.
''That's only 3.5 percent above where we are now. With T-bills yielding nicely, why take the risk
with stocks?'' he said. Six-month U.S. Treasury bills currently yield 5.1 percent, with virtually no
risk.
''That's the quandary the market is facing right now. From where we are sitting now there is no
compelling reason to buy the U.S. equity market,'' he said.
Cliggott expects earnings to recover eventually. ''When we break off this earnings plateau, it will be
to the upside, not lower,'' he said.
For now, he advises investors to stick to stocks with little exposure abroad, especially regional bells
and supermarkets, as well as high yielding stocks such as electric utilities.
WHICH STOCKS MOST VULNERABLE TO RUSSIA? OIL, BANKS?
Alan Skrainka, chief market strategist at Edward Jones frets that the crisis could also hurt U.S.
consumer confidence.
''On top of Clinton problems, bombings around the world and the Asian crisis, this is one more
reason for consumers to be nervous -- They are the engine driving two-thirds of all economic activity
and if they pull back, that could slow up the economy more than anyone is expecting,'' he said.
Skrainka said he is telling clients to put some money in intermediate-term bonds, which can cushion
investors from the blow of a market decline.
He thinks there can be opportunities in the wreckage in big blue-chip stocks including super-regional
bank First Union Corp. (FTU - news), PepsiCo (PEP - news) and Campbell Soup Co. (CPB - news).
''You do not head into a period of high economic uncertainty owning small-cap stocks instead of
large ones,'' he said.
He also recommended Intel Corp (INTC - news), despite the recent dip in computer chip stocks.
''Chip sales keep falling, but Intel's stock has stopped. It looks like a coiled spring to me, the bad
news is already priced in.'' |
