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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (13135)8/26/1998 8:50:00 PM
From: RockyBalboa  Read Replies (1) of 18691
 
OCOM, thankyou Bob.

About shorting AMZN, CMGI, LCOS, (YAHOO?), DELL and others.
The others may be (JMO): MSPG, INKT, ETEL

When considering my favorite internet shorts, then I also see CMGI as one (posted last week), DCLK (which is already on the low side), CNWK (??). There is another one, I shorted at the very beginning, at $67 YBTVA, already paying off. There is nothing behind it, but I will take a closer look... My personal target for this dog is $40 - $45.

In the meantime, I have read through a bunch of posts saying aloud: I go for dell, or short yahoo, or now its lcos time...
I think, time is not right to ride it downwards for say dell or even yhoo and xcit. I watch it sinc mid July seeing AMZN, YHOO, XCIT rather stable and DELL (and I'm glad not to have used margin and nerves in shorting these stocks).

But I think of creating a low cost option strategy, which can be rolled downwards or opened if the underlying really looks ugly. For some, say AMZN it is more or less one of the only ways to do. I didn't trade that much in stock options, more in currency options, to hedge dollar exposure or ride swiss franc or yen (so I'm used different volatilities and premium ratios ).
One possibility is to a buy a long term put (6-m) and write short terms with lower strikes against it (a moderate bear), if the volatility surface pays more for short term options (in terms of volatility). Additional call writing may increase the risk on the upside, but can make it cheaper if the stock doesn't move in the period.

Stocks not shortable on Datek: KTEL,INKT,AMZN,NETG,ENMD

Christian
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