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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 318.63-3.0%Feb 3 3:59 PM EST
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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (23377)8/26/1998 8:55:00 PM
From: John L.  Read Replies (3) of 70976
 
Brian, I think you have way to optimistic a view of business conditions, the Taiwaneese and South Koreans fueled the market for the past 3-4 years. We now have a situation where many companies are over invested in capital equipment, hence modern fabs are being shut down. The buying is a long way down the road: 1)We need demand to surpass the supply, more fabs have to close. 2) The fab utilization has to return to >90% for a need to build new fabs. 3)Existing equipment will not be able to fill the next generation requirements.
We are not meeting these 3 criterion so new fabs are still out of the foreseeable future. I hope in January of '99 there is a move to Copper or we will be seeing another reduction in employees and revenue whichn will translate into lower earnings. The stock price has to drop at some point when the earnings are turning negative and the outlook is getting worse. I don't think AMAT layed off people to generate better profits, they are putting a bandage on the wound to reduce the bleeding. Brokerages rating AMAT a buy while reducing '99 earnings fore cast to 50cents is bull. I will go long when the business picks up, not when some hope the worst is behind us so it must get better that is foolish.
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