Hello Ike
just got back from working with my son in CT...
i'm responding to your post #19479..it had my 7400 number in it, but also referred to Corp Business as usual....
I don't think Corp's are doing business as usual anymore...here's my reasoning, and why i feel somewhat skeptical about valuations & profitablility going forward...
First, Corps can not raise prices...competion is so fierce that there is NO way they can raise prices without losing customers....
Second is wages..they are moving steadily higher each and every time the reports come out...so wage presures DO exist...
Third, with "REAL" problems out there in World Economies, consumer spending begining to wane in Asia & elswhere, consumer confidence falling 2 monhs in a row, i feel there is real problems ahead...
My feeling is that Corp Profits have to start to falter in general....more lay offs, more "warnings to come", blindsides are out there for sure...if companies are unable to raise prices, have to pay "higher" wages because of fear of losing quality personel, have potential problems within the confines of their respective industries, how can the "markets", continue to hold current "valuations", "pe's, and dividend yields, under this senario...????
Ike, IMO, they can't!! so what I see is a potential recession late in 99 into 2000, as a looming possibility...for some crazy reason though, I can't see a "bear market"...with interest rates so low, and probably going lower, with tame inflation(at the moment), with consumer spending slowing after X-Mas this year, I can't forsee this happining...It's a real funny situation for me to interpret....
But for aure my friend, Corporations can not sustain earnings as before...I truly do not see that... Oh of course there's always "DELL"<ggg>...incredible co...but there are way to few Dell's and a bunch more lesser quality run co's out and about right now...we have just entered " warnings" time frame...they'll be out there for aure..
If all the people on this thread had solid profits in stocks they own today, I feel they should take those profits and run during the next solid rally...if on the other hand you have dogs & doggies with "fles"??? sell them now, because on down the road they will be worth a lot less...the Fund Magrs & Instatutional Guys, will sell these "unprofitable" stock fast & furious so as NOT to have them in their "Protfolios"""" bet on it!!!! window dressing the Quarter will come hard & fast & early...don't be surprised at the rate of decline on these types of holdings...
Ike, I still feel, that in Dec, we will be able to purchase stocks cheaper than today....of course we shall see if that event acually happens...I'm cautious, very skeptical about co's eps this Q, with their respective outlooks in the NEXT 2 Q's....
Like I said 2 weeks ago, AMAT was a great short & still is!!!!!..:>}
My Regards to you and all....Jerry |
