Paul,
OK, I'll concede the bear market if you'll concede the recession. The peso plunge in July '97 is indisputable, but that's almost exactly the time of the Thai drop. Growth rates were positive and increasing from '93 until then, and the currency was reasonably stable. I don't follow the local market closely, being too familiar with local business practices to even consider investing there. The market obviously slumped well before the general decline (though I'd still guess less than 4 years), but I still think you'd have to have been extraordinarily prescient to see that as a sign of regional instability, rather than a result of simple overvaluation of practically everything on the exchange.
If the peso keeps going the way it is, you won't need too many clams to snorkel around here. If nothing else, travel in Asia is a bargain these days.
On the subject of turning Hindu, I was somewhat surprised when my mother came through town recently - on her way to India to see her guru. I remember when they were all upset about the possibility that we might do that....
Steve |
