Baird, I am not sure if the yearly low will hold or if we even go below my "infamous 13" for bear market bottom valuation on CYMI or even below. This contraction is deeper than I expected. I did not think that the semi equip BTB ratio would drop under .75, it has made a new all time low, I believe in the high .6's and could still drop.
If the duration of this recession in the semi is much longer, it will actually strengthen CYMI position relative to its competitors, but in the process, they will go through some cash (and thus my belief that they should not buy back shares with the extra cash), and the valuation will become more and more attractive.
I do not subscribe to acidman position that CYMI is an "has been" far from it, just as I do not subscribe to WFR being an "has been". When good times return to the sector (and I see no "paradigm change" to indicate the good times will not return), both will flourish and yield triple and quintuple baggers from these prices.
I personally always prefer buying either at a cathartic low or when a positive trend is in place, thus my patience in full commitment to the sector and my limiting my self to short term forays.
Zeev |
