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Technology Stocks : GTIS: Is there a better bet for Christmas sales?
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To: Andrew Vance who wrote (226)12/17/1996 2:51:00 AM
From: RJC2006   of 432
 
All points eloquently made. I believe that the major majority of engine software sales for games such as Duke and Doom have been made. Quake still has a chance for acceptable appreciation but has taken some rather hard hits lately. Now, my feeling is the most comprehensive of your points is the one on distribution. I agree, purchasing such entities as Warner Interactive may not show up handily on the bottom line but I imagine that it does help in positioning one's self for the future.

Unfortunately, I don't know if the majority of advanced royalties that they have paid out the last year are identified exclusively with titles that are now either on the market or have reached their high water mark. Input in this regard would certainly help with any future earnings predictions.

Now, what some don't seem to catch on to is the fact that you can purchase a variety of Duke add-ons but they won't get you anywhere without the game engine. I still maintain that these add-ons can actually aid in engine sales. If you have the choice of buying a game for $40 with no add-ons and a game for $40 that allows you a good amount of future add-on potential, you might opt for expandibility.

But the stock is a much harder play then the games. I tend to cross my fingers and hope your assumption is correct on a short term play but I hate to put my money down on this. True, it could help those of us who got in at the 10-12 level to either break even or take a small loss but it won't do much to aid us in making any sizable gains. However, as a short term play I am almost inclined to take a loss in '96 and then buy back at the lower level at the first of the year. It all works out about the same in the long run. Regardless of how much you average out, you still have a block at 20 or so and you are correct IMHO that it will be a considerable time before GTIS has even a remote shot at that level. 13, maybe, but not if they only hit the revised earnings projections.
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