<..I think there is a minimal critical mass in regards to infrastructure we have to obtain to be really able to put up the numbers..>
If by numbers you mean the expectation of EBITDA neutral, I think it could be a challenge to hit the end of 2000 target. I say this after reading Dawson's articles on the expected further delay to standardized, interoperable and eve integrated and well-working P-MP. This may push us back a Q or 2.
<..and we may be nearing that point this quarter...>
Not sure what numbers you think could do it this Q. It would definitely be nice to see a higher % on-net. But we will likely just have installed 25 hubs this Q (and as Ed heard and I confirmed hearing earlier today - we'll probably get a press release about our hub status so far, sometime in the next couple of weeks), but likely not much chance to get those hubs' customers on net. And for whatever reason, we seem to be dragging on getting "on-switches". Don't quite understand this, but hopefully whatever issues haunted us in the earlier Qs, the later Qs will be catching up. We might not hit the "125 hubs installed by end of 99" target the company guided in 4Q97, and reiterated several months back, but we SHOULD make a big jump up from 60. So while I'm glad to see we are building closer to expectation, I suspect we may be somewhat behind earlier metric projections (though like limtex, I hope not)
<...possibly will be hitting those analysts numbers by year end...>
Hurts to accept, but personally, with this market, I would be somewhat surprised to see 45.
<..And just try to picture one year from today, when the stock may well be over 100...>
I can certainly see this. Though with Clinton may be down for the count, and Gore is about to take a hit in Thurs AM's NY Times, along with other economic and political factors, the market will be hard pressed to reward story stocks (though we are a compelling, first class story) with the kind of valuations they became accustomed to in previous years. Then again, communications convergences will be occurring over the next 6-12 months, and these could be explosive.
<..And don't forget, Grubman is getting paid $25 million or whatever to reiterate that WinStar will be over 60 by year end. If you get paid
$25M, you better be right, right?..>
He got his $25MM for bringing WCOM to Solly. He can certainly be afforded allowance in being wrong elsewhere, especially since it's really more an issue of timing. (ie., IMO he slides if WCII hits $61 at SOME point). Though we can dream of a $60 YE, and I wouldn't wind up impaled on my sword. |
