Alan,
Again, the crux of what I am saying is this..
Until DELL stops gaining year over year in the fashion that it has and does now, the stock will not stop over the long run. Key point is slowdown. I was reading an article in an old magazine saying that DELL was overvalued by 40%... the article was from Oct 1997..
Xerox, Avon, INTC, KO, the list goes on and on. All these companies had expansive earnings growth from year to year. When that slows, so does the stock progression..
There is a direct correlation to earnings growth and stock increase. Wall Street will find companies that keep beating estimates and reward them.
MSFT is another example, there is an article in Fortune about them and how they keep beating estimates, the stock keeps rising.
Name me any company that grows revenues like DELL and you will see that the market rewards them similarly.
Also remember that DELL has done this quarter after quarter after quarter, and I dont care bull or bear market a company that is increasing revenues and beating expectations will not slow down.
That isnt to say that DELL doesnt have dips, it sure does. It is a momentum stock, but look at a 3 year chat on DELL it is amazing.
It isnt because Mikey is handsome or he talks cute..
Earnings...
And I dont think there is a competitor out there that has their model or plan, and thus they will continue to roll until that changes.
One other thing Alan, you are conceeding a bear market, I dont think that is going to happen. Bears in the past were brought on by factors that effected our markets. Now if we let the world to go hell and not intervene then yes it will get to us like the Black Plague. But do not underestimate the Fed.. I think they know when to say when. We have to let the other countries attempt to work things out, but if and when it starts to effect us, there will be the correct measures taken. IMO..
There is too much media to hide these things, if we start to slow over a period of time the captain will correct us. I may disagree with Greenspans ways of letting things float, but I am sure that there are plans intact to stop a recession from occurring.
BTW, last time I checked we are extremely independant of most all other nations, and most importantly we have technology which is the best resource a country can have.
Futures are very choppy, all over the place..
later..
Oh yeah... Go DELL!!! |
