Hi Bobby:
This guy is looking for 1360 and then there is Wolanchuk top timer in timers digest looking for Dow 16,000 this year and the epicenter of primary wave 3
Thanks for the reference. It looks very scientific, but still a bit like voodoo to me.
so you might say only about a month ago nobody expected a crash or a bear market
True, but I would distinguish between a crash-like event and a bear market. You can have a bear market without crashes. For a rare event like a crash many different factors have to coincide (weak technicals, panic sentiment and a triggering event), for a bear that is not necessary. But the best investing strategies in the two cases are rather different. Of course, when a bubble bursts you are likely to have both.
You might say that since we are so oversold, most of the bulls (and plenty of bears) might think we need another rally before the bear market continues or the crash begins -
I think that we are already in a bear market, it is just not confirmed for the major indices yet.
WHAT IF surprise, we didn't get that rally.
I have thought about that one as well, but have not come to a firm conclusion. Russia is an interesting sentiment test. Rationally it should be a non-event for the U.S. market (unlike Asia). If the market reacts negatively to Russia two days in a row (though I would consider yesterday quite resilient), that would indicate weakening underlying sentiment. It looks like another gap down this morning, but smells like manipulation again.
Good trading to all,
Phil |
