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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 318.63-3.0%Feb 3 3:59 PM EST
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To: Lone Star who wrote (23426)8/27/1998 10:55:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
No, marketing doesn't produce chips. It's much too soon to write off AMAT, and I didn't mean to imply that I was.

I'm just commenting that the market has valued them at a substantial premium relative to the rest of the sector, largely on the strength of their perceived invulnerability. Yet they do not currently have a copper electroplating tool, or a credible alternative to electroplating. They are the only company with copper etch, but have disclosed zero technical information, making the technology impossible to evaluate. They have no low-k solution except for this mysterious amorphous carbon stuff, again with no technical data. And their responses to my questions on all of these topics have been along the lines of "we think it will be several years before those technologies have significant market share." That's a true statement, but doesn't sound to me like a company that's aggressively grabbing the brass ring, or a company that I'm willing to pay 30x earnings for during a downturn that management describes as "unprecedented."

Disclaimer: As previously noted, I don't own AMAT. Or NVLS, or SMTL, or any other equipment company for that matter. Nor do I plan to buy any of them.

Katherine
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