"Ze Puts, Boss, Ze Puts." 1. Citicorp is especially gratifying as I took a lot of crap on this piece of crap. <G> If anyone remembers, when I wrote "Beyond The Valley of The Dulls-Analysts" for IFC, I recommended Sh, er, Citicorp for puts. Then those yahoos came out and announced their deal with Travelers. I considered that a turkey merger, though it did surprise me. The market disagreed and took this dog all the way to the 180s. That buried my first third and I heard from all the merger/bank lovers about what an idiot I was and how could I knock analysts when I was such a lousy analyst. The next third with the stock in the 160s shrank to immediate puny-osity, also. And the last third at 170 ran against me toot sweet. Well, the first third (the position, not the original puts, which expired worthless) came to daddy in a net quadruple today as I rolled down and out to 120s. The second third was a roll down sextuplet and the 170s were a roll down 9 bagger. The last rolls of those two are now history. Good history. As the saying goes, the winners write the history.
2. Was Merrill Lynch, in retrospect, the all-time layup sure thing? As I bitched and moaned about the company several times, if they are growing at 4-6% in the best of all environments for the numero uno brokerage firm, how will they fare in any environment that is not absolutely perfect? I think the market has now decided to ask the same question. This was a good one as it was a double dipper, running to the 90s, then fading, and then running to the 100s, and then crashing. Love that kind of movement. I am now down to a third here and hope for a dead cat bounce to put on more.
3. What happened to the guy who a few months back was telling us that he was right on Intel's fundamentals because it was going up? The sad thing about bulls is that they disappear when they are wrong. Bears stick around for abuse. Hmmmm, maybe they are smarter. <G> I don't have a position in Intel, though I have commented on it many times. Woulda, shoulda, coulda.
4. Chase hit a new low since I started buying puts in the pre-split high 130s, low 140s. I really hate this bank. I don't know why exactly. I always had a good relationship with Chase/Chemical and Citi when I traded big money. But I can't believe anyone thinks they are worth their recent high prices. Folks, these are junky cos., leveraged out the wazoo. They need everything working their way to show any growth at all. You buy them real cheap, maybe, but you don't pay up for them. I have rolled down and out, but still have 2/3s.
5. Amat is coming true. Morgan seems not to be able to spin his way out of their current disaster.
6. The airlines refuse to allow the banks to become my top put performers this year, and Ciena is already in the clubhouse. I knew they were overpriced, but this is downright bloody. Gotta love it. Only wish I'd bought some train puts, too. <G>
7. MU and GTW are down, but they continue to amaze me. What is it about these stocks that creates so many true believers. If AMAT and MU are the same price, which co. would you like to own all of? If their is the letter "U" in your answer, try again. <G>
8. The niche chip stocks also continue to blow my mind. I'm looking for a homerun on these guys and so far, I have been lucky to get doubles, despite horrendous fundamentals and huge valuations.
9. CNBS has started their afternoon "the smart money is buying" chant. They are also saying that Greenspan has to loosen. The guy is already looser than Monica Lewinsky on a Naval Base. <G>
10. The calls on Tlab and Cien have sure not worked so far. But now you can see why I didn't go for buy and writes or other riskier strategies. I didn't think Ciena could fall without Tellabs heading north, but I wasn't willing to bet that way with anything but a minor debit. Good thing, too. <G>
Today has been fun.
MB |
