IBM Message Board - Msg: 5607118

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Technology Stocks : IBM

IBM 309.24

-0.5%

Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: jont who wrote (3742)	8/27/1998 5:11:00 PM
From: Arrow Hd.	Read Replies (1) of 8218

In addition to my concerns posted a few weeks back in #3706 we now are at or below some key technical levels. I believe, for instance, 1050 on the S&P is one of those numbers. If the Japanese market tanks overnight and their index closes significantly lower, a support level will collapse there too. Japan is still the largest concern outside the U.S. Today we had no snap-back. IBM is sitting on an important support level and depending upon what happens overnight our markets could gap down and IBM would probably follow. There will be reluctance to buy in and carry big positions over the weekend. This is a similar pattern to other downdrafts including 1987. If it breaks I would not have any confidence in any technical or fundemental methodology. I would be out of margin and have adequate cash in reserve. FWIW, I think the large caps that have held up, including IBM, will have to capitulate before this correction can reverse itself. A lot of small and mid-cap techs are already down significantly. But even if it all comes apart I would be a big buyer if it moves back down to the 108 - 110 area. Right now I am totally in cash as a capital preservation move. Probably too conservative but we'll see.

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