JT, I'll take a shot at the question.
Steve took some heat from Janko the other day regarding whether this was an appropriate time to be buying LEAPs. Clearly, the folks that have bought LEAPS since 1994 have been (as you know) well rewarded. Clearly, a bullish trend involves exposure to the time factor of the yield curve.
As I noted a couple of weeks ago, the DJIA flashed its first monthly MACD bearish signal since 1994. That is a long time. I paid dearly for not paying attention to my own TA.
One could have made a lot of money in stocks (and more in options) playing the bounces since the beginning of April. However, as I noted last week only 17 of my reduced list of 71 Big Boyz stocks are positive for performance since 6/26. Almost every buy and hold decision has been flawed.
In my mind there are 3 ways to play a bearish trend: 1) buy puts and short (I've just never been very good at picking tops); 2) stand aside and go on vacation (graciously accept the break), or 3) Ride the Waves (catch a wave, jump off and go catch another wave).
The problem with the third possibility is it takes a lot of work. I have found that, try as I may, I still lack the discipline necessary to make it totally successful. However, I believe some of this is related to the technology handicap I'm operating under.
I am convinced that accepting the 1-3% gains is the only way to play a bearish trend. BTW As nasty as today was, I think the OEX looks like it will rebound.
My comments FWIW.
Berney
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