i2, not mad, just pointing out the fallacy of what you said. you said the sun has risen each day for many years so it is highly probable for it to rise tomorrow as an analogy of why stocks will most likely go up from here, ie, b/c they have in the past.
i disagree with the concept. the past doesn't necessarily predict the future and you never know until it is too late ;-)
but, you understand this concept b/c you said... " I guess
that means that you think that current market action is a direct parallel to 1929."
no, i don't. neither do i believe that today is an exact parallel of of 1990s history. nor even recent history. the valuations to growth ratios are so different now than in 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, and 1996 as to put us on another planet. even 1997.
it does seem that you select what history you want to derive whatever probabilities of future action you want, though. my point is that this may not be the best course of action over long periods of time - it might be downright dangerous.
btw, anybody with a sell signal above 8100 appears to have the upper advantage on bob right now ;-) |
