Are we all having fun? The Dow is still above the level it was at when the Asian crisis began over a year ago. Ramsey has been waiting a year for this little dip in the USA markets so he will be out running around, singing and chirping, enjoying it all. Excessively margined people will be getting a lesson or two. But really, everyone should look back over many decades and you will see that markets vary up and down around 20% a year. One year up 20%, another down 20%. We are in the process of a decades long rapid gain in human development, a major beneficiary of which is the USA multinational and local industrial companies.
Chris Reeder is having a lot of fun too! At last, at last, the crash. But there is no crash. The Nasdaq was down to 950 or so in 1996 after a bit of scaling and gutting of credit card stock buyers, mutual fund panickers and the same will happen this time round. The Nasdaq has only dropped a few hundred. Big Dippers are designed to get white knuckles on most people. Buying on dips isn't enough. There is real fear needed. Where even the sanguine start to check their margin balances, future expectations, trim their spending and start performing better at work.
Now we wait to see if Paul Krugman was right about serial and parallel stupidity. I bet there is big printing going on right now to avoid a deflationary spiral. I've worried and tried my best to figure out over the past two years what will happen with a derivatives led debt collapse, bouncing around the world, collapsing the speculative empires. I still say Green$pan and pals print flat out. Interest rates drop. The panic abates. The improvident are cleaned out. The Dow then climbs right on out to 16000, Feb 2002, on the back of the newly inflated US$, which is even more the world's reserve currency.
Having maintained my personal insurance policy of a low margin debt so that I could sustain a good sized worldwide prang, which is bound to come along now and then, I'd be disappointed if it didn't get tested. So far, my knuckles are not the slightest bit white. The sun is out, the lambs are frollicking at One Tree Hill. Spring is sprung.
And the Big Dipper hasn't picked up too much speed for me.
Yet!
Don't people love the thrill of a roller coaster.
Yes, Limtex, Mighty Q back "HOME". But don't depend on it lasting. For every seller there is a buyer.
Mqurice |
